Daytona 500 Predictions

by admin

Daytona 500 NASCAR Preview and Fantasy Predictions By Tom Bowles, 2/13/21, 8:00 AM EST Change is in the air as the season kicks off with the 63rd Great American Race.

NASCAR Cup Betting Resources
Daytona 500 Picks

  • Date: Sunday, February 14, 2021
  • TV-Time: FOX, 2:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Daytona International Speedway
  • Location: Daytona Beach, Florida

Handicapping NASCAR at Daytona

In the previous 62 Daytona 500s, no driver has won three straight of NASCAR’s most prestigious race and we haven’t seen anyone get the opportunity since Sterling Marlin tried in the 1996 event. But 2021 gives us a chance to watch history as Denny Hamlin will try to win his third straight Daytona 500 on Sunday and he’s fully aware of what is at stake.

'I hope that I'm around (don't wreck early), that I give myself a chance to make history because ultimately, that's what I'm here for,' Hamlin said. 'Making history, doing something that no one else has ever done, that's what motivates me to want to get this one.'

He also will be shooting for his fourth Daytona 500 which would tie him with Cale Yarborough for second-most behind Richard Petty’s seven wins. He has a chance to make history and that’s the main theme coming into the 63rd running of the race.

  1. Prediction: Hamlin will be tested by Wallace, Elliott and Lagano, but no one will get in the way of him completing the trifecta. He wins his third straight Daytona 500 on Sunday.
  2. 2021 Daytona 500 Odds Denny Hamlin (+750) is the favorite according to oddsmakers at.
  3. Top 2021 Daytona 500 predictions One surprise: the model is high on Aric Almirola, even though he's a 16-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Daytona odds 2021 from William Hill. He's a target for.
  4. NASCAR betting picks for 2021 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway. Our Daytona 500 race preview and best bets for Sunday, February 14.

There are only five active drivers other than Hamlin to win a Daytona 500 and all of them have one win each. Some of the best superspeedway drivers, or those from the restrictor-plate era, have retired and taken their secrets of manipulating the air in the draft. But the 40-year-old Hamlin learned in his younger years by watching the greats and finally won a superspeedway race in his ninth season racing on them at Talladega in 2014.

Now he’s got five superspeedway wins, winning two of four last season -- top-four in all four -- closing out with a Talladega win. He led laps in all four superspeedway races last season and used different strategies in all. He’d either get upfront and lead to keep the ‘Big One’ behind him or fall behind to keep an eye in front of him with enough room to avoid the inevitable pile up that always happens on superspeedways. He’s been successful at both.


Denny Hamlin seeks a third consecutive Daytona 500 title on Sunday afternoon. (AP)

He’s also got Joe Gibbs Racing equipment which has worked hard to be competitive in the opener at Daytona. Matt Kenseth led a bunch of laps on superspeedways for JGR, Erik Jones got a summer Daytona win in 2018, and Kyle Busch has the top Daytona rating (91.1) among all drivers since NASCAR's Loop Data started keeping track in 2005. Hamlin is rated No. 2 (88.7) over that span.

In Wednesday morning’s first practice before qualifying, JGR equipment posted the top-five speeds with the new 2021 entry, Bubba Wallace, fastest with his Michael Jordan-Hamlin-owned No. 23.

The point is that it hasn’t all been Hamlin, but he’s been the one to use his skills the best and get out front lately. He uses the side-draft better than anyone and he blocks while leading better than anyone which is why we’re talking about him possibly winning for the third straight season. The car rules and race packages are the same as 2020, although Hamlin’s winning Daytona 500 car from last season is on display at Daytona USA.

NASCAR Cup Odds - Daytona

  • Denny Hamlin +800
  • Chase Elliott +1000
  • Joey Logano +1000
  • Ryan Blaney +1000
  • Brad Keselowski +1400
  • William Byron +1400
  • (Odds Subject to Change)

William Hill sportsbooks have him listed as the 8-to-1 favorite while Circa Sports updated numbers Wednesday have him favored at 11-to-1 odds, the best number in the world.

I’ve been saying for years to be careful and be smart wagering every time there’s a superspeedway race. It’s repetitive but I feel it’s important to remind you all that the volatility of these two tracks changes the true driver rating for each driver because they’re more susceptible to being caught up in a wreck at no fault of their than other tracks.

That’s why I say ditch the props and driver match-ups, but spend some more than usual on odds to win mixing in weighted amounts on a couple of favorites like Hamlin or Ryan Blaney (14/1), middle of the board drivers like Kyle Busch (19/1), Wallace (28/1), Chris Buescher (51/1), and a long shot like Jones (60/1) or Ryan Newman (60/1).

2020 daytona 500 predictions

The sportsbooks know this as well which is why they don’t offer any huge odds on the long shots but offer big odds on the favorites. It’s the randomness, the crapshoot of it all where any driver can win. As the wrecks start happening, you start throwing bet tickets away, but for the final five laps, you may have three of the 10 drivers in the lead pack and have just as good of a shot as any.

Last season I had tickets on Hamlin and Newman in that situation and I got lucky, but I believed in Newman and the Roush equipment for superspeedways. I still do to an extent with Newman and Buescher, who finished third in the Daytona 500.

Let’s talk about some contenders to derail Hamlin’s quest for history beginning with his new employee Wallace who William Hill is offering at 28-to-1 odds.

Daytona 500 Contenders

The Toyota’s have the least amount of friends and the drivers always choose manufacturers of their own to draft with which is all the more reason to be astounded by Hamlin’s success. The Fords and Chevrolets all have more cars on the track than Toyota. But Hamlin just got a new wingman with Wallace in case Martin Truex, Jr., Busch, or Christopher Bell aren’t around to push him.

2020 Daytona 500 Predictions

Wallace had three top-fives in his three seasons with Richard Petty Motorsports and two of them came at Daytona, including a runner-up as a rookie in 2018. It’s the only type of racing he had success with continuously where he could find his way to the front. But now he has basically a JGR car with Michael Jordan money attached and crew chief Mike Wheeler who was chief for Hamlin in the 2016 Daytona 500 win. This car is going to be fast and contending for the win while also pushing or being pushed by Hamlin.

I instantly thought of the 2001 Daytona 500 when Dale Earnhardt, just before he passed, was blocking for his two DEI cars driven by Michael Waltrip and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and gave up his chance to win -- he had a fast RCR No. 3 that day -- to let his two cars battle it out. He had never given anybody anything like that in his career.

That scenario won’t play out here because Hamlin is going for three straight, but I’m sure at some point we’ll see Hamlin have a hand at helping Wallace gets his first career Cup win, and if I could bet where it’ll happen I would say on one of the four superspeedway races.

2021 Daytona 500 Predictions

Team Penske has a great superspeedway package but only Joey Logano has a Daytona 500 win (2015). Brad Keselowski has a 2016 win at Daytona in the summer race and five other wins at Talladega.

Ryan Blaney has won at Talladega in each of the last two seasons and was runner-up in the Daytona 500 last season. They all have fast cars and all are also very good at understanding how the draft works. They also have friends from Roush, Front Row Motorsports, Wood Brothers, and Stewart-Haas Racing that drives Fords and can help in the draft.

The Chevy camp comes loaded with speed and young talent. Chevrolet has won the Daytona 500 pole the last eight seasons, and a Hendrick engine has won the last six, five of which were by a Hendrick driver.

William Byron (16/1) won last summer at Daytona for his first career Cup win. He’s a nice pick to take his next logical step into NASCAR stardom in a year that just saw Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson,, and Clint Bowyer retire.

Chase Elliott (14/1) comes off his first championship season and NASCAR is hoping for more to come -- see seven road courses on the 2021 schedule. But he’s never won at Daytona in a points-paying race. This would be a great place for the champ to bust out and gain an even bigger audience of young fans. Chase just has a quiet coolness about him and is hard not to like.

Daytona 500 Predictions 2021 Reddit

Back to only five active drivers that have Daytona 500 wins other than Hamlin. Earnhardt went almost an entire career racing and dominating all races at Daytona until finally winning the Daytona 500 in 1998. Tony Stewart never won one. Kyle Busch starts his 17th Daytona 500 searching for his first win. Keselowski is also still searching for his trophy, so is Truex, and so is Elliott -- all Cup champions.

As always, I’ll go for the historical moment to happen and I supported Hamlin through the betting window, along with a few other guys I mentioned in this piece. Here are my top-5 selections using odds from Circa Sports Las Vegas:

Daytona 500
Top-5 Finish Prediction

  • 1) #11 Denny Hamlin (11/1)
  • 2) #12 Ryan Blaney (14/1)
  • 3) #10 Aric Almirola (24/1)
  • 4) #47 Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. (26/1)
  • 5) #24 William Byron (16/1)

NASCAR Cup Series
Weekly Predictions


The NASCAR Cup Series kicks off the 2021 season at Daytona International Speedway Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET for the Daytona 500. Below we analyze the Daytona 500 NASCAR odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Daytona 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:18 p.m. ET.

The Cup Series is scheduled to kick off its 2021 season Sunday for the Great American Race, the Daytona 500. However, we’ll have to keep a close eye on the sky. There is greater than a 60 percent chance of showers from mid-afternoon through the early evening in Daytona Beach, Fla., so a delay and/or postponement seems likely given the ominous forecast.

Monday’s forecast calls for mostly clear in the morning with a 40 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms moving in around 1 p.m. ET. But there is an open window in the event the race is postponed Sunday.

Kyle Busch won the Busch Clash at Daytona on Tuesday night on the road course. While that certainly doesn’t mean sure success on the tri-oval, it gives Busch a springboard into the new season after a disastrous 2020.Busch’s Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin has won each of the past two Daytona 500 races. In last year’s win, he was originally slotted in the 21st starting position but was moved to the back of the pack due to multiple failed inspections. In 30 career starts at the track he has three wins, 10 top-5 finishes and a 16.33 Average-Finish Position (AFP).Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon picked up the checkered flag at the 500 in 2018. Good finishes on the restrictor-plate track are nothing new for Dillon. In 15 career starts at DIS, he has the 2018 win, two top-5 finishes, seven top-10 runs and a pole in 2014. He also has a stellar 15.53 AFP on the Florida superspeedway.Bubba Wallace will make his debut for owner Michael Jordan’s 23XI Racing, running in the No. 23 car. He was the runner-up to Dillon in 2018, posting the highest finish by an African-American driver in the 500. Bubba was fastest in Wednesday’s practice.

Special Daytona 500 Betting Promotion!

Bet $1 on any driver to win, WIN $100 (in free bets) if your driver just completes a lap. New customer offer, available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, TN, VA and WV. PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer!

Place all of your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM. Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Who is going to win the Daytona 500?

HAMLIN (+500) is the chalk, but you have to figure it’s time for someone else. The No. 11 has been to Victory Lane in each of the past two seasons in the Super Bowl of Stock Car Racing. Hamlin’s two wins, and three victories in the past five seasons, gives manufacturer Toyota checkered flags in three of the past five Daytona 500 races.

Hamlin joined Sterling Marlin (1994-95), Cale Yarborough (1983-84) and Richard Petty (1973-74) as the only drivers to win the Daytona 500 in consecutive seasons. No one has ever won the Daytona 500 in three straight years.

Stewart-Haas Racing’s KEVIN HARVICK (+1200) has some rather long odds given his previous success at the track. He has made 39 career starts on the Daytona tri-oval, posting two wins, 10 top-5 finishes, 262 laps led and a sharp 17.6 AFP. He also has eight DNFs at the track, second-most among active drivers behind KYLE BUSCH (+1400), so there is some risk.

Penske Racing’s JOEY LOGANO (+900) is looking to get back to Victory Lane at the 500 for the first time since 2015. He owns an impressive 18.17 AFP in 24 career DIS starts, including nine finishes of 10th or better with 156 laps led.

Play our new free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Daytona 500 long-shot bet

RICKY STENHOUSE JR. (+2500) of JTG Daugherty Racing was on the pole last season and was fifth fastest in qualifying at 189.565 mph. He is always a driver to watch on the superspeedways, especially Daytona. He has a win in 17 career starts, 121 laps led and 10 finishes of 20th or better while going for a solid 19.59 AFP.

ARIC ALMIROLA (+1800) doesn’t have quite as long of odds, but he is worth a look. He appeared to be on his way to a win at the 500 in 2018, but he was bumped by Dillon and sent careening into the wall. He does have a career win in Daytona in the summer race, and he has 10 finishes of 20th or better in 18 career starts with a 20.56 AFP.

Nascar Daytona 500 Predictions

Want action on this race? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Daytona 500 Predictions

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Daytona 500 Predictions Odds

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.